Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
